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Wednesday, May 19, 2010

Are predictions of endless war self-fulfilling?


In Isaac Asimov's science fiction series Foundation, the mathematician Hari Seldon invents a method, called psychohistory , that predicts social behavior as accurately as statistical mechanics predicts the behavior of gases. The catch is that the predictions may be thwarted if influential people learn about them and consequently change their behavior. Seldon's model predicts that civil war will destroy his galactic civilization. He never publicizes his prophecy, so it comes true. [More]

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